“Past performance is no guarantee of future results” (investment adage)
“Past performance is no guarantee of future results” is a disclaimer found on nearly every financial prospectus. “While past performance is, of course, no guarantee of future results” was cited in print in June 1960; “Past performance is no guarantee of what any fund will do in the future” was cited in December 1960.
Despite the disclaimer, people usually put their money in investment vehicles that can show a winning performance.
21 June 1960, Boston (MA) Traveler, pg. 41, col. 6 ad:
While past performance is, of course, no guarantee of future results, you can see why thousands of investors—amateur and professional—follow the investment suggestion appearing weekly in INVESTORS TIMING GUIDE.
(Hill, Darlington & Co.—ed.)
12 December 1960, Portsmouth (NH) Herald, “The Daily Investor” by William A. Doyle, pg. 13, col 8:
Comparing past records of mutual funds can be very helpful. Past performance is no guarantee of what any fund will do in the future. But it does give you a good idea of how successful each fund has been to date. After all, you wouldn’t want to invest your money in shares of a fund with a miserable record.
10 May 1962, Trenton (NJ) Evening Times, “The Daily Investor” by William A. Doyle, pg. 16, col. 2:
As all mutual funds are required to state in their sales literature, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
25 October 1965, El Paso (TX) Herald-Post, “The Daily Investor” by William A. Doyle, pg. B12, col. 7:
But no one mutual fund has led the pack all the time. Do I have to remind you that the New York Yankees don’t win the pennant every year?
And past performance is no guarantee for the future.
Google Books
November 1972, ABA Journal, pg. 1149 ad:
*Past performance should not be taken as a representation of future results. The value per unit varies up and down depending on the investment performance of a diversified portfolio of common stocks.
(ABRA retirement plan—ed.)
Google News Archive
19 December 1975, Prescott (AZ) Courier, “Interest predictions are only speculation” (Associated Press), pg. A, col. 6:
An investment adviser is required to attach a caveat to his projections. It generally reads: “It should not be assumed that future results will be profitable or equal past performance.”
Google News Archive
29 August 1976, Daily News (Bowling Green, KY), “Wall Street: Bright talk fails to end stock slump” by Chet Currier (AP Business Writer), pg. 2, col. 3:
Of course past performance, as the advertisements for investment services always note, is no guarantee of future results.
Wall Street Law Blog
09 AUGUST 2011
Wall Street’s Favorite Disclaimer: “Past Performance Is No Guarantee Of Future Results”
Home prices can fall! Shocker, right?
The Big Picture
Top 10 Investor Errors: Past Performance vs Future Results
By Barry Ritholtz - July 8th, 2012, 12:00PM
This Sunday morning we reach the ninth in our series of investor errors. This one’s title comes from the standard Wall Street boilerplate disclaimer that is on everything investment related: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”
Despite its ubiquity, it is routinely ignored by investors.
Seeking Alpha
The ‘Past Performance’ Contradiction
By The Investing Engineer
October 26, 2012
Past performance is not indicative of future results
If you’ve been doing any sort of investing for anywhere from 30 minutes to 30 years, you’ve heard this saying. I find it used most commonly to express something like:
Here’s my analysis of company ABC based on their growth and valuation for the past 10 years, and why I think they will continue to perform. While you’re buying this stock based on my recommendation, keep in mind that past performance is not indicative of future results.
I hope the contradiction is clear. It’s impossible to predict the future, unless you’re Nouriel Roubini, or you have some sort of “insider” knowledge that you can “trade” on. Yet, the past is all we have.