“If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad & Wall” (Santa Claus Rally)
A “Santa Claus Rally” is a stock rally at the end of the year, at Christmas and New Year’s Day. Yale Hirsch first described the rally in his Stock Trader’s Almanac. By 1972, Hirsch put the phenomenon to rhyme: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad & Wall.”
An older phrase (dating back to the 1900s) is: “The bears have Thanksgiving, but the bulls have Christmas.”
Wikipedia: Santa Claus rally
A Santa Claus rally is a rise in stock prices in the month of December, generally seen over the final week of trading prior to the new year. The rally is generally attributed to anticipation of the January effect, an injection of additional funds into the market, and to additional trades which must, for accounting and tax reasons, be completed by the end of the year. The Santa Claus rally is also known as the “December Effect.”
See also
First recorded by Yale Hirsch in his Stock Traders Almanac.
Stock Market Adages
If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad & Wall. [Trader’s myth that if we don’t see a “Santa Claus rally” in December, the market will decline in the coming year.]
20 December 1972, Chicago (IL) Tribune, “nvestment Scene: Santa’s Wall St. Visit Cheering” by George Gunset, pg. C9:
“If Santa Claus should fail to call. Bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
14 December 1976, Capital Times (Madison, WI), pg. 5, col. 3:
To put it in Hirsch’s cheerful doggrel, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, Bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
Buffalo (NY) News
SANTA CLAUS IS COMING
Published on December 9, 1992
For 31 out of the past 39 years, Santa Claus has brought a short and sweet rally to Wall Street, says the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The rally occurs within the last five days of the year and the first two in January and is good for an average gain of 1.72 percent, it says. When the rally has not occurred, however, bear markets often have followed, which leads to this old saw: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad & Wall.”
TheStreet.com
Playing the Correction
11/01/01 - 01:26 PM EST
(...)
I’m reminded of Yale Hirsch’s dictum: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall!” In other words, if the market doesn’t rally when it normally does, watch out.
Google Books
Stock Trader’s Almanac 2008
By Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Yale Hirsch
Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons
2007
Pg. 112:
IF SANTA CLAUS SHOULD FAIL TO CALL
BEARS MAY COME TO BROAD & WALL
Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street nearly every year, bringing short, sweet, respecatble rally within the last five days of the year and the first two in January. This has been good for an average 1.5% gain since 1969 (1.5% since 1950). Santa’s failure to show tends to precede bear markets, or times stocks could be purchased later in the year at much lower prices. We discovered this phenomenon in 1972.