Entry in progress—B.P.
peakist (plural peakists)
1. A supporter of the peak oil theory, or one who advocates policies that depend on this theory
Wikipedia: Peak oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time usually grows exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines—sometimes rapidly—until the field is depleted. This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. Peak oil is often confused with oil depletion; peak oil is the point of maximum production while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply.
M. King Hubbert created and first used the models behind peak oil in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His logistic model, now called Hubbert peak theory, and its variants have described with reasonable accuracy the peak and decline of production from oil wells, fields, regions, and countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical logistic distribution curve (sometimes incorrectly compared to a bell-shaped curve) based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures.
New York (NY) Times
Imagining a $7-a-Gallon Future
By DANIEL YERGIN
Published: April 04, 2004
Adherents of the ‘’peak oil’’ theory warn of a permanent oil shortage. In the next five or 10 years, they maintain, the world’s capacity to produce oil will reach its geological limit and fall behind growing demand. They trace their arguments back to the geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who in 1956 accurately predicted that American oil production would reach its apex around 1970. In a recent book, ‘’Hubbert’s Peak,’’ Kenneth S. Defeyes, an emeritus professor of geology at Princeton, wrote that ‘’Global oil production will probably reach a peak sometime during this decade.’’ Current prices, he adds, ‘’may be the preamble to a major crisis.’’
Still, are the peakists right?
New York (NY) Times
On Oil Supply, Opinions Aren’t Scarce
Published: September 10, 2005
The best-known “peakist” these days is Matthew R. Simmons, who runs Simmons & Company, an investment bank and consulting firm in Houston specializing in energy companies. Mr. Simmons’s essential belief, he told me recently, is that energy demand is about to exceed supply significantly. And that was pre-Hurricane Katrina - before the storm damaged refineries, pipelines and offshore rigs all along the Gulf Coast. “I would argue that we are in a serious energy crisis,” Mr. Simmons added. He forecasts increasing oil prices.
By Justin Fox
Wednesday, Nov. 21, 2007
The true believers in what’s called peak oil--a motley crew of survivalists, despisers of capitalism, a few billionaire investors and a lot of perfectly respectable geologists--have long cited the middle to end of this decade as a likely turning point.
Among the peakists, war and economic breakdown are favorite themes. They figure that cheap oil is the essential fuel of modern capitalism, which will founder without it. A more hopeful take is that innovation is the essential fuel of modern capitalism and that high oil prices will drive rapid advances in conservation and alternative energy. Either way, the beginning of the end of the oil era may be upon us, well ahead of schedule.
Page added on June 5, 2011
Of “Peakists”, “Doomers”, “Survivalists”, “Alarmists”, “Deniers”, and “Cornucopians”
I realized recently that, as regards the raging Peak Oil Debate, a whole spectrum of views on the subject has come to be described by certain labels. On one side we do have the so-called “Peakists”, “Doomers”, “Survivalists” and “Alarmists”; and on the other, there are the equally so-called “Deniers”, and “Cornucopians”.
A Peakist is one who has peak oil related concerns that oil depletion will lead to a severe economic recession or another Great Depression.
A Doomer is a Peakist, as described above, who believes that in addition to severe global economic recession or another Great Depression that results from oil depletion a Malthusian Catastrophe would unavoidably ensue.
New York City • Banking/Finance/Insurance • (0) Comments • Saturday, June 18, 2011 • Permalink