A plaque remaining from the Big Apple Night Club at West 135th Street and Seventh Avenue in Harlem.

Above, a 1934 plaque from the Big Apple Night Club at West 135th Street and Seventh Avenue in Harlem. Discarded as trash in 2006.

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Entry from October 01, 2011
Great Moderation

Entry in progress—B.P.

Wikipedia: Great Moderation
In economics, the Great Moderation refers to a reduction in the volatility of business cycle fluctuations starting in the mid-1980s, believed to have been caused by institutional and structural changes in developed nations in the later part of the twentieth century. Sometime during the mid-1980s major economic variables such as GDP, industrial production, monthly payroll employment and the unemployment rate began to decline in volatility.

Origins
Chang-Jin Kim and Charles Nelson (1999) and Margaret McConnell and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós (2000) calculated that U.S. output volatility had declined substantially in the early 1980s. This phenomenon was called a “great moderation” by James Stock and Mark Watson in their 2002 paper, “Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?”. It was brought to the attention of the wider public by Ben Bernanke (then member and now chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve) in a speech at the 2004 meetings of the Eastern Economic Association.

Causes
The Great Moderation has been attributed to various causes: i) improved government economic stabilization policy, ii) financial innovation and global integration, iii) improved inventory control and supply chain management, and iv) economic good luck (partly from productivity and commodity price shocks). Researchers at the US Federal Reserve and at the European Central Bank have rejected the ‘good luck’ explanation and attribute it mainly to improved monetary policies. According to John B. Taylor, originator of the Taylor rule, the Great Moderation resulted from the abandonment of discretionary macroeconomic policy by the federal government, and the adoption of a rules-based macroeconomic policy instead (working mainly through monetary policy).

OCLC WorldCatrecord
Macroeconomic volatility, predictability and uncertainty in the Great Moderation : evidence from the survey of professional forecasters
Author: Sean D Campbell
Publisher: Washington, D.C. : Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, [2004]
Series: Finance and economics discussion series, 2004-52. 
Edition/Format:  eBook : Document : National government publication : English

OCLC WorldCat record
What Caused The Great Moderation? Some Cross-Country Evidence
Author: P M Summers
Publisher: [Kansas City, Mo.] : Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Edition/Format:  Article : English
Publication: Economic review. 90, no. 3, (2005): 5-32
Database: ArticleFirst

OCLC WorldCat record
Spillovers of Domestic Shocks : Will They Counteract the “Great Moderation”?
Author: Mody, Ashoka; Alina Carare
Publisher: International Monetary Fund 2005.
Edition/Format:  eBook : Document : English

OCLC WorldCat record
THE “GREAT MODERATION” AND THE US EXTERNAL IMBALANCE
Author: F Perri; A Fogli
Publisher: [Stanford, CA] : National Bureau of Economic Research
Edition/Format:  Article : English
Publication: Working paper series. no. 12708, (2006): ALL
Database: ArticleFirst

OCLC WorldCat record
MANDEL ON ECONOMICS: The Great Moderation
Edition/Format:  Article : English
Publication: BUSINESS WEEK -NEW YORK- no. 4057, (November 5, 2007): 036-37
Database: British Library Serials

OCLC WorldCat record
From the Great Inflation to the Great Moderation: A Literature Survey
Author: N Srinivasan
Edition/Format:  Article : English
Publication: JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS, 6, no. 1/2, (2008): 40-56
Database: British Library Serials

OCLC WorldCat record
On the Sources of the Great Moderation
Author: J Gali; L Gambetti
Edition/Format:  Article : English
Publication: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL MACROECONOMICS, 1, no. 1, (2009): 26-57
Database: British Library Serials

Posted by Barry Popik
New York CityBanking/Finance/Insurance • (0) Comments • Saturday, October 01, 2011 • Permalink