Mike O’Rourke, a strategist for Jones Trading, came up with the term “bearmageddon” (stock market bear + Armageddon) in 2013. The term was popularized in two articles—“MIKE O’ROURKE: Here’s The ‘Bearmageddon Scenario’ That Would Be A Nightmare For The Stock Market And Bernanke” on Business Insider in June 2013 and “‘Bearmageddon’ And Moar Of The Same Policies That Haven’t Worked” on Zero Hedge in July 2013. O’Rourke wrote, “The Bearmageddon Scenario is one where the economic data rolls over and turns negative.” A bearmageddon—where financial markets fall by large amounts—is often called simply a market “crash.”
“BEArmageddon” had appeared on a financial blog in September 2010, but otherwise had been an unknown financial term before 2013.
Channels and Patterns
Tuesday, 21 September 2010
Posted by springheel_jack at 05:55
There have been a lot of indications in recent days that the summer range on SPX was likely to break up, so it wasn’t a surprise that it has, but the timing is very bad, as it has happened without the expected retracement and buying opportunity from the 1130 SPX area, and now that SPX has broken up, there is a very significant chance that SPX will break up further to a level where a retest of 1130 SPX would be the retracement target.
MIKE O’ROURKE: Here’s The ‘Bearmageddon Scenario’ That Would Be A Nightmare For The Stock Market And Bernanke
Joe Weisenthal Jun. 7, 2013, 5:23 AM
Strategist Mike O’Rourke of JonesTrading has a section of his latest note describing the “bearmageddon scenario” for stocks and the Fed.
The Bearmageddon Scenario is one where the economic data rolls over and turns negative. The reason we are mentioning it today is that this week we have received a sub-50 ISM Manufacturing report. The last two major bear markets coincided with consecutive monthly sub-50 ISM prints. That has yet to occur, but it is something to be cognizant of. Although we don’t have confidence in ADP, if it is signaling weakness in tomorrow’s report, it would be a problem. A Non-Farm Payrolls print around that 100,000 or less level about which investors are concerned would be a real problem. After 18 months of multiple expansion, modest earnings growth driven by buybacks and full throttle monetary policy, a substantive weakening of economic data would be disconcerting to investors. With zero interest rates and $85 billion a month in QE, how would the Fed respond to new weakness in the data? More QE? New weakness would just expose QE3 as a failure. It would also confirm the Fed has wasted the past couple of years relying on QE.
“Bearmageddon" And Moar Of The Same Policies That Haven’t Worked
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/16/2013 12:36 -0400
Via Mike O’Rourke of Jones Trading,
QE and hopes/beliefs in its perpetual nature continues to be the key market catalyst. Tracking estimates for Q2 GDP continue to drop below 1%. This is setting up a scenario where GDP for the previous 3 quarters will likely average 1%. If we didn’t think that job creation is going to sustain its current pace of growth, we would say this market is heading towards the “Bearmageddon Scenario”.
New York City • Banking/Finance/Insurance • Tuesday, July 16, 2013 • Permalink